Quantify shopper pass-through vs margin absorption and the impact on Imperial Brands' US P&L
Set how each key competitor reacts to the excise change. Their move shifts cross-elasticity flows into / out of the IB portfolio.
Each bucket splits the excise change between shelf-price (passed to shopper) and P&L (absorbed). Click a bucket to drill into brand-level detail.
| Bucket | Passed to shopper | Absorbed by IB | Δ Volume | Δ Net Revenue | Δ Margin | Δ Share (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full Absorb | $0.00 (0%) | $1.00 (100%) | 6.6% | $-2,540M | $-2,876M | +1.89 |
| Absorb Heavy | $0.25 (25%) | $0.75 (75%) | 4.4% | $-1,896M | $-2,122M | +1.29 |
| Balanced | $0.50 (50%) | $0.50 (50%) | 2.1% | $-1,286M | $-1,402M | +0.70 |
| Pass Heavy | $0.75 (75%) | $0.25 (25%) | -0.1% | $-710M | $-716M | +0.11 |
| Full Pass Rec | $1.00 (100%) | $0.00 (0%) | -2.4% | $-168M | $-65M | -0.48 |
| Over-Shift | $1.25 (125%) | $0.00 (0%) | -4.6% | +$340M | +$552M | -1.07 |
50/50 split between shopper and P&L.
| Brand | Seg | New Price | Passed | Absorbed | Δ Vol | Δ Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winston | Mid | $7.90 | +$0.50 | $0.50 | 4.7% | $-329M |
| Kool | Menthol | $8.10 | +$0.50 | $0.50 | 3.0% | $-177M |
| Maverick | Value | $6.40 | +$0.50 | $0.50 | 1.6% | $-573M |
| Sonoma | Value | $5.90 | +$0.50 | $0.50 | -0.8% | $-322M |
| IB Portfolio Total | 2.1% | $-1,402M | ||||
Cross-elasticity flow: IB pass-on vs competition assumption (100%).
Outcomes across Imperial Brands, the competitive set, and the total US cigarette category given the selected IB bucket and competitor reactions.
| Brand | Bucket | New Price | Δ Volume | Δ Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlboro | Full Pass | $9.50 | -0.2% | $-47M |
| Newport | Full Pass | $9.70 | -1.0% | $-118M |
| Camel | 100% | $9.20 | -1.0% | $-78M |
| Pall Mall | 100% | $7.10 | -6.7% | $-348M |
| Competition Total | -1.6% | $-591M | ||